Squawk Box Europe Express

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon comes into effect. U.S. President Trump says he sees the conflict with Iran ending soon. Bank of Israel governor Amir Yaron tells CNBC that he expects a deal to be done but maintains it is a ‘working assumption’. Investor hopes of peace in the Middle East rise with equities notching new record highs Stateside. The Nasdaq is on course to post its best week in a year while European bourses remain mixed. Spanish deputy PM Carlos Cuerpo tells CNBC at the IMF Spring Meetings he has no regrets over his country’s refusal to become involved in the Iran conflict while Banque de France governor François Villeroy de Galhau insists that the ECB must not act rashly on rates ahead of a crucial meeting in a fortnight.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq post new record highs as investors signal hopes for an end to the ran conflict. The positive sentiment has also affected Asian equities with the Nikkei leading gains. The U.S. and Iran are expected to resume peace talks in Pakistan next week with Israeli and Lebanese leaders set for ceasefire discussions later today. We hear from a slew of European policy makers at the IMF Spring Meetings about the risks of a prolonged conflict. French finance minister Roland Lescure and Bundesbank governor Joachim Nagel tell CNBC they must remain flexible to rolling developments.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. President Trump says peace talks with the Iranian regime could resume in Pakistan within days. Speaking to CNBC at the IMF spring meetings, Pakistani finance minister Muhammed Aurangzeb said he was optimistic for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The IMF has slashed its global growth forecast outlining three scenarios – weaker, worse or severe. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas tells CNBC that even the best outcome would feature a ‘very significant downgrade’. Chip maker ASML hikes it FY sales guidance to €40bn on strong A.I. demand. Luxury giant Kering posts a narrow Q1 miss due to weaker Gucci sales and faltering demand in the Middle East.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. navy begins its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. However, there are signs of further dialogue which have helped crude prices to drop back under $100 per barrel. President Trump says the “appropriate people” in Tehran have communicated that they want to strike a deal. The optimism is felt on Wall Street with the S&P 500 erasing its losses since the start of the conflict while Asian equities are also in the green overnight. In luxury news, LVMH sales miss quarterly expectations as the Iran crisis weighs. The firm’s U.S. shares closed 3 per cent in the red.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Following failed U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, Washington moves to blockade ships exiting or entering Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surge on the news while Asian markets move into the red. President Trump says the blockade is aimed at eliminating Iranian crude exports from the market. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is ousted after 16 years in power with Peter Magyar’s centre-right Tisza party winning a two-thirds super majority vote.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. President Trump accuses Tehran of not honouring the ceasefire with the Strait of Hormuz remaining firmly shut. Israel has said it was willing to hold peace talks with Lebanon, despite continuing to target Hezbollah sites in the country. Crude prices remain below the $100-mark despite Saudi Arabia claiming Iranian attacks on its Red Sea pipeline have erased up to 700,000 barrels a day from the market. European equities are due to end the week firmly in positive territory with investors clinging onto hope the Middle East ceasefire will hold. Stateside, the S&P 500 is on course to post its best weekly performance since November.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Iran accuses the U.S. of violating the new ceasefire agreed on Tuesday with Israel continuing to target Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance is to lead peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan this weekend, saying early ceasefire ‘choppiness’ is expected. Oil prices rebound from yesterday’s relief rally optimism with Asian markets in the red. European futures are slightly negative. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is hosted by President Trump at the White House who voices his frustration with the alliance’s lack of support over action in Iran. Rutte said talks were ‘frank’ but remained friendly.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump announces that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the condition Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. WTI and Brent sink back under the $100-mark as a result and the Kospi and Nikkei leading gains in Asian markets. The rally is due to extend in Europe and the U.S. with the Stoxx 50 and Nasdaq futures set for gains of 5 per cent and 3 per cent respectively. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu supports the pause in hostilities in Iran but says the deal does not cover operations in Lebanon. We hear exclusively from Lebanese Economy Minister Amer Bisat who presses for a ‘sovereign-led ceasefire’ for his country.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. President Donald Trump has cranked up the pressure on the Iranian regime to strike a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to target civilian and energy infrastructure should tonight’s deadline not be met. Oil futures rise on the comments but European equities remain sanguine following the extended Easter trading break. We hear exclusively from Danone CEO Antoine de Saint-Affrique who says the food giant is entering a new phase of acquisitions following a wave of recent acquisitions including UK powdered food firm Huel. De Saint-Affrique told CNBC the company is looking to reinforce its brands in the face of potential war-related volatility. And the Artemis II crew flies deeper into space than any manned craft before, surveying the far side of the moon.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump addresses the nation and says the war in Iran is nearing its end but offers no hint of de-escalation, adding that the U.S. will continue to strike the country. Markets surge on the news with WTI and Brent nudging past $100 per barrel. Asian equities start today off in the red with European futures looking to follow suit. Trump also advises European allies to ‘build up delayed courage’ to procure Gulf oil for themselves, insisting that the U.S. is wholly reliant on its own supply.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hopes of a de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict help push all three Wall Street majors into the green with the Nikkei and Kospi leading Asian stocks gains. U.S. President Trump has indicated he is ready to finish the conflict in Iran with ‘two or three weeks’ even without a deal on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump slammed NATO allies for refusing to provide aid in the conflict. He criticised France for blocking airspace access to U.S. war planes and the UK was challenged to source some of its own oil from the Persian Gulf.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Brent is on course for its biggest monthly gain ever but has dipped overnight after a WSJ report that President Trump could be willing to halt the conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force. Iran strikes a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker. The White House says that Trump is still willing to strike a deal with the Iranian regime despite claims he could target energy infrastructure in the country. The Nasdaq is in correction territory following a turbulent session while the Stoxx 600 has suffered its worst monthly performance since March 2020. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offers investors hope saying the central bank’s rates policy is comfortable.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Oil prices continue to surge as the Iran conflict enters its fifth week. Brent is set for its largest monthly gain ever with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed. Asian markets are selling off while European futures also point south. President Trump tells the FT he is eyeing Iran’s oil reserves and has signalled he is willing to take over the vital export terminal of Kharg Island. However, he has also commented that a deal with Iran’s leadership remains possible. Australia joins other nations to announce it will be cutting its fuel tax for three months to provide consumer relief.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump extends his deadline for attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6th, as talks reportedly continue. The US leader insists Tehran is desperate to end the war, even as it rejects the first US proposal. Oil prices ease and Asian stocks come well off session lows, as investors digest Trump's deadline extension and Iran's move to allow some tankers through the Strait. Futures in Europe and on Wall Street point higher, following Thursday's sell-off. Waiting on Rubio - the US Secretary of State is set to join his G7 peers in France for a second day of talks - as EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says Russia's involvement in Iran reflects how the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are connected. Anthropic reportedly eyes an IPO as soon as October, as the AI player wins a preliminary injunction in its legal fight with the Department of Defence.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-in

Iran says it is reviewing a U.S. ceasefire proposal but firmly denies President Trump's claims that talks are underway with Tehran desperate to strike a deal. Stocks fall and oil rises as investors reassess the odds of a ceasefire with former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein telling CNBC investors should tread carefully. G7 foreign ministers arrive for a key summit in France, as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine dominate the agenda. NATO's Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation tells CNBC the military alliance is confronting new forms of warfare and urges Europe to take on a greater leadership role.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. government has reportedly provided Iran with a peace proposal even though Tehran continuously denies direct talks are happening. President Trump voices optimism that a deal can be struck. Oil prices fall as a result with Brent settling near the $100-mark while European and U.S. futures move to the green on hopes of de-escalation in the Gulf. Shell CEO Wael Sawan has warned that Europe could face potential fuel shortages by next month should the conflict continue while TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné told CNBC at CERAWeek in Houston that refining margins are soaring to unprecedented levels.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Iran denies it is in negotiations with Washington as President Trump announces he has postponed airstrikes on critical power plants and energy facilities in the country for five days and claims a peace deal could be close. Oil prices rebound following an initial drop in the price of Brent to below $100 for the first time in almost a fortnight on the back of Trump’s comments. US and European futures point south, giving back some of Monday’s gains. Apollo Global caps withdrawals from a $25bn private credit fund after investors sought more than 11 per cent of the total following its first monthly loss in more than three years.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. and Iran trade threats with President Trump warning he will target power stations should the Strait of Hormuz not be reopened. The Iranian leadership has hit back saying it will target energy and water supply facilities in the Gulf. South Korea’s KOSPI leads losses in Asia while European futures are in the read. Crude prices continue to rise with WTI surpassing the $100-mark once again. And precious metals are also on the decline with last week’s gold price slide the largest in more than 30 years.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Israel continues to increase air strike on Iran overnight. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the country’s uranium enrichment capabilities have been destroyed but signals the possibility of a ground invasion. Central banks across Europe defer any possibility of rate cuts with the ECB and BoE warning that the Middle East conflict has blurred the inflation outlook and will push up energy prices. European Council leaders plead for warring parties in the Gulf to cease attacks on key energy facilities as Hungary vetoes a €90bn loan to Ukraine over halted oil shipments. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Iran strikes Qatar’s main LNG facility – one of the world’s biggest – following an Israeli attack on the giant South Pars gas field. President Trump has warned of stern intervention should retaliatory strikes continue. Equities in Europe are back in the red following a two-day winning streak. The Federal Reserve holds rates steady and signalling a single cut to come this year. Chairman Jerome Powell says it is too early to tell what impact the war in Iran could have on inflation.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.